Question

Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?

Resolved :Yes

23 comments23

Total Forecasters263

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

8.9

Community Peer Score

5.0

median 99.0%mean 97.6%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

National Guard of Russia

Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?

67%

Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?

0.7%

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

National Guard of Russia

10_Ukraine rushes to reinforce eastern front as pressure mounts

Korea Herald•Nov 12, 2024

Map Shows Major Russian 'Breakthrough' in Northern Ukraine

Newsweek•Nov 14, 2024

Analysis: Ukraine is facing 50,000 Russian troops in Kursk – can they hold out?

Independent•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?

67%

Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?

0.7%