Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?

Resolved :Yes99%
23
23
Total Forecasters263
Community Prediction99% (99% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
8.9
Community Peer Score
5.0
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
johnnycaffeine
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Geopolitics
2022 Leaderboard
National Guard of Russia
War in Donbass
Donetsk Oblast
Ukraine
Mariupol

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