Question

Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?

Resolved :No

16 comments16

Total Forecasters200

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

91.0

Community Peer Score

8.2

median 1.0%mean 1.3%

Authors:

jonathanjouty

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

United Nations Security Council

Belarus

Alexander Lukashenko

Belarus–Russia relations

Russia

Will Russia significantly incorporate Belarus into the Union State before 2030?

40%

Will Belarus become a EU candidate country before 2030?

Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?

67%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

jonathanjouty

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

United Nations Security Council

Belarus

Alexander Lukashenko

Belarus–Russia relations

Russia

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia significantly incorporate Belarus into the Union State before 2030?

40%

Will Belarus become a EU candidate country before 2030?

Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?

67%