Question

What percentage of world GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2030?

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Total Forecasters19

Community Prediction2.46

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My Prediction

community

<0.5

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>10

...

0.2%

2.019

2.464

3.318

4.1%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

Gross domestic product

Real gross domestic product

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Veterans for Peace

Strategic Arms Limitation Talks

Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty

United States

Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?

What percent of GDP will the United States spend on healthcare in 2030?

16.8

Will the world be free from nuclear weapons at any point before 2075?

1.4%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

Gross domestic product

Real gross domestic product

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Veterans for Peace

Strategic Arms Limitation Talks

Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty

United States

A new nuclear arms race is beginning. It will be far more dangerous than the last one

Guardian•Nov 14, 2024

Quality over quantity: U.S. military strategy and spending in the Trump years

•Nov 14, 2024

Navigating the Fiscal Storm: A New Course for U.S. National Defense

Lew Rockwell•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?

What percent of GDP will the United States spend on healthcare in 2030?

16.8

Will the world be free from nuclear weapons at any point before 2075?

1.4%