Question

When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?

Resolved :Jan 28, 20242024-08-22

30 comments30

Total Forecasters111

Community Prediction2024-08-22 (2024-01-22 - 2026-04-12)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2035-01-01

...

2024-01-22 12:01

2024-08-22 11:29

2026-04-12 20:06

5.0%

What was the final result?Jan 28, 2024

Community Baseline Score

43.8

Community Peer Score

23.6

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Food and Drug Administration

Elon Predicts One Million Humans Will Be Augmented By Neuralink By 2030

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Humanoid Robots Being Mass Produced in China

Newsweek•Dec 20, 2024

OpenAI is done with Shipmas and staring down daunting challenges for 2025

NBC•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?

2034-01-27

When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?

2038-12-18

Will humans be able to communicate via telepathy before 2050?

41.7%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Food and Drug Administration

Elon Predicts One Million Humans Will Be Augmented By Neuralink By 2030

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Humanoid Robots Being Mass Produced in China

Newsweek•Dec 20, 2024

OpenAI is done with Shipmas and staring down daunting challenges for 2025

NBC•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?

2034-01-27

When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?

2038-12-18

Will humans be able to communicate via telepathy before 2050?

41.7%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?

Make a Prediction

When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?

When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?

Will humans be able to communicate via telepathy before 2050?

Comments

When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?

When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?

Will humans be able to communicate via telepathy before 2050?

When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?

When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?

Will humans be able to communicate via telepathy before 2050?

When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?

When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?

Will humans be able to communicate via telepathy before 2050?