Question

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters13

Community Prediction2052-08-27 (2033-09-01 - 2076-09-10)

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weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2100-01-01

...

2033-09-01 16:49

2052-08-27 08:07

2076-09-10 04:03

16.4%

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Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Health & Pandemics

Environment & Climate

Is Bird Flu a Potential Pandemic? Dangers of the Outbreak Explained

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

America’s Bird-Flu Luck Has Officially Run Out

Atlantic•Dec 20, 2024

Bird Flu Terror Hits All-Time High as California Declares State of Emergency

PJ Media•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?

31.2%

Biosecurity Vulnerabilities of American Food Supply

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Health & Pandemics

Environment & Climate

Is Bird Flu a Potential Pandemic? Dangers of the Outbreak Explained

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

America’s Bird-Flu Luck Has Officially Run Out

Atlantic•Dec 20, 2024

Bird Flu Terror Hits All-Time High as California Declares State of Emergency

PJ Media•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?

31.2%

Biosecurity Vulnerabilities of American Food Supply

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

Make a Prediction

Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?

Biosecurity Vulnerabilities of American Food Supply

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Comments

Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?

Biosecurity Vulnerabilities of American Food Supply

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?

Biosecurity Vulnerabilities of American Food Supply

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?

Biosecurity Vulnerabilities of American Food Supply

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?