Question

Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?

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Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction31.2%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 31.2%

median 31.2%mean 31.1%

Authors:

samuelraasch casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Agriculture in the United States

African swine fever virus

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

2052-09-01

Biosecurity Vulnerabilities of American Food Supply

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

85%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

samuelraasch casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Agriculture in the United States

African swine fever virus

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When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

2052-09-01

Biosecurity Vulnerabilities of American Food Supply

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

85%