Question

Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?

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Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction31.2% (20% - 42.7%)

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50%

community: 31.2%

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Authors:

samuelraasch casens

Opened:

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Scheduled resolution:

Agriculture in the United States

African swine fever virus

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When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

2052-08-27

Biosecurity Vulnerabilities of American Food Supply

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

85%

Comments

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Authors:

samuelraasch casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Agriculture in the United States

African swine fever virus

Is Bird Flu a Potential Pandemic? Dangers of the Outbreak Explained

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

America’s Bird-Flu Luck Has Officially Run Out

Atlantic•Dec 20, 2024

America's bird flu hotspots revealed as patient fights for their life in hospital... is killer virus in YOUR state?

Daily Mail•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

2052-08-27

Biosecurity Vulnerabilities of American Food Supply

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

85%

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Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?

Make a Prediction

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

Biosecurity Vulnerabilities of American Food Supply

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

Comments

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

Biosecurity Vulnerabilities of American Food Supply

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

Biosecurity Vulnerabilities of American Food Supply

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

Biosecurity Vulnerabilities of American Food Supply

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?