Question

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters40

Community Prediction23%

Make a Prediction

community: 23%

median 23.0%mean 25.6%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Environment & Climate

Berkeley Earth

Long Now Foundation

When will be the first year that the 2˚C climate threshold is crossed?

2044-02

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Environment & Climate

Berkeley Earth

Long Now Foundation

When will be the first year that the 2˚C climate threshold is crossed?

2044-02

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

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Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

Make a Prediction

When will be the first year that the 2˚C climate threshold is crossed?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

Comments

When will be the first year that the 2˚C climate threshold is crossed?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

When will be the first year that the 2˚C climate threshold is crossed?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

When will be the first year that the 2˚C climate threshold is crossed?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?