Question

Will the Supreme Court find Harvard's admissions unlawful in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?

Resolved :Yes91%

13 comments13

Total Forecasters94

Community Prediction91% (89% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 91%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

10.2

Community Peer Score

1.4

Authors:

abricinthewall

Opened:

Feb 2, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2030

Verity

Law

Students for Fair Admissions

Harvard University

Supreme Court of the US

Lawsuit Accuses University of California of Allowing Race to Factor in Admissions

New York Times•Feb 16, 2025

Steep Drop In Number Of Colleges Using Legacy Admissions, Finds Report

Forbes•Feb 15, 2025

Colleges Using Legacy Admissions Drop By More Than Half, Report Finds

Forbes•Feb 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Harvard University announce an end to preferential legacy admissions before 2030?

40.8%

Will the Department of Justice or Education open a civil compliance investigation into whether diversity-related programs at Harvard constitute illegal discrimination or preferences before 2026?

61%

Will Harvard disaggregate statistics on Black enrollment by recent immigration status or slave ancestry before 2030?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

abricinthewall

Opened:

Feb 2, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2030

Verity

Law

Students for Fair Admissions

Harvard University

Supreme Court of the US

Lawsuit Accuses University of California of Allowing Race to Factor in Admissions

New York Times•Feb 16, 2025

Steep Drop In Number Of Colleges Using Legacy Admissions, Finds Report

Forbes•Feb 15, 2025

Colleges Using Legacy Admissions Drop By More Than Half, Report Finds

Forbes•Feb 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Harvard University announce an end to preferential legacy admissions before 2030?

40.8%

Will the Department of Justice or Education open a civil compliance investigation into whether diversity-related programs at Harvard constitute illegal discrimination or preferences before 2026?

61%

Will Harvard disaggregate statistics on Black enrollment by recent immigration status or slave ancestry before 2030?

20%