🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?

Resolved :No1%
15
7
Community Prediction0%2.4%4.8%7.2%9.6%12%Nov 01Nov 05Nov 09Nov 13Nov 17Nov 21Nov 25Nov 29Dec 03Dec 07Dec 11Dec 15Dec 19Dec 23Dec 27Dec 31now
Total Forecasters133
Community Prediction1% (1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
94.6
Community Peer Score
5.5
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
johnnycaffeine
Opened:Jan 29, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2023
Resolves:Jan 1, 2023
Geopolitics
Politics
2022 Leaderboard
Ukraine–NATO relations
US Armed Forces
Florida National Guard
United States
Poland
John Kirby (admiral)
Joe Biden
Romania
Ukraine

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