Question

Will humanity find and exploit a new source of xenon on Earth before 2040?

18 comments18

Total Forecasters11

Community Prediction24.9% (10% - 30%)

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50%

community: 24.9%

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Authors:

uganda

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Natural Sciences

XENON

Earth

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered "under serious threat" by 2040?

36.9%

Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere before 2030?

60%

When will at least 1 kg of helium-3 from extraterrestrial bodies be imported to Earth?

2075-03-15

Comments

? comments

Authors:

uganda

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Natural Sciences

XENON

Earth

How to catch a supernova explosion before it happens – and what we can learn from it

Raw Story•Dec 18, 2024

The Search for 'Planet 9' May Be Coming to an End

PJ Media•Dec 19, 2024

2 populations of dark comets in the solar system could tell researchers where the Earth got its oceans

The Conversation•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered "under serious threat" by 2040?

36.9%

Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere before 2030?

60%

When will at least 1 kg of helium-3 from extraterrestrial bodies be imported to Earth?

2075-03-15

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will humanity find and exploit a new source of xenon on Earth before 2040?

Make a Prediction

Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered "under serious threat" by 2040?

Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere before 2030?

When will at least 1 kg of helium-3 from extraterrestrial bodies be imported to Earth?

Comments

Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered "under serious threat" by 2040?

Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere before 2030?

When will at least 1 kg of helium-3 from extraterrestrial bodies be imported to Earth?

Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered "under serious threat" by 2040?

Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere before 2030?

When will at least 1 kg of helium-3 from extraterrestrial bodies be imported to Earth?

Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered "under serious threat" by 2040?

Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere before 2030?

When will at least 1 kg of helium-3 from extraterrestrial bodies be imported to Earth?