Question

Will humanity find and exploit a new source of xenon on Earth before 2040?

18 comments18

Total Forecasters11

Community Prediction24.9% (10% - 30%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 24.9%

Authors:

uganda

Opened:

Mar 7, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2040

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2040

Natural Sciences

XENON

Earth

Electric fields could mine rare earth metals with less harm

New Scientist•Jan 26, 2025

Scientists discover nearby ‘super-Earth’ that could sustain life: ‘There is hope for the future’

New York Post•Jan 28, 2025

Dark energy mystery is finally SOLVED - as scientists come up with a radical new theory to explain the mysterious force

Daily Mail•Jan 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered "under serious threat" by 2040?

36.9%

Will we find another inhabitable planet by 2040?

Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere before 2030?

60%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

uganda

Opened:

Mar 7, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2040

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2040

Natural Sciences

XENON

Earth

Electric fields could mine rare earth metals with less harm

New Scientist•Jan 26, 2025

Scientists discover nearby ‘super-Earth’ that could sustain life: ‘There is hope for the future’

New York Post•Jan 28, 2025

Dark energy mystery is finally SOLVED - as scientists come up with a radical new theory to explain the mysterious force

Daily Mail•Jan 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered "under serious threat" by 2040?

36.9%

Will we find another inhabitable planet by 2040?

Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere before 2030?

60%