Question

Will there be a heavy fuel oil spill of 1,000 gallons or more in the Arctic between 6 June and 8 September 2018?

Resolved :No

4 comments4

Total Forecasters90

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

84.4

Community Peer Score

4.2

median 1.0%mean 4.6%

Authors:

IARPA Question Bot

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge

Arctic

Heavy fuel oil

Will British Petroleum (BP) successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?

12%

Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?

30%

What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years?

3.96

Comments

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Authors:

IARPA Question Bot

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge

Arctic

Heavy fuel oil

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Will British Petroleum (BP) successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?

12%

Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?

30%

What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years?

3.96