Question

Will there be a heavy fuel oil spill of 1,000 gallons or more in the Arctic between 6 June and 8 September 2018?

Resolved :No

4 comments4

Total Forecasters90

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

84.4

Community Peer Score

4.2

median 1.0%mean 4.6%

Authors:

IARPA Question Bot

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge

Arctic

Heavy fuel oil

Will British Petroleum (BP) successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?

12%

Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?

30%

What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years?

3.96

Comments

? comments

Authors:

IARPA Question Bot

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge

Arctic

Heavy fuel oil

Fishermen set out to catch halibut... and net a US nuclear submarine! 7,800-tonne vessel drags fishing crew's net for two miles off Norway

Daily Mail•Nov 15, 2024

Alaska political leaders hope to see Trump undo restrictions on oil drilling

Independent•Nov 16, 2024

Alaska political leaders hope to see Trump undo restrictions on oil drilling

Associated Press•Nov 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will British Petroleum (BP) successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?

12%

Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?

30%

What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years?

3.96