Question

If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?

Resolved :Feb 24, 2022

32 comments32

Total Forecasters145

Community Prediction2022-02-25

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

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2022-02-22 15:20

2022-02-25 10:16

2022-02-28 09:28

What was the final result?Feb 24, 2022

Community Baseline Score

13.2

Community Peer Score

2.5

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

United Nations Security Council

Russo-Ukrainian War

Donbass

Temporarily occupied and uncontrolled territories of Ukraine

Ukraine

Crimea

Russia

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Independent•Nov 15, 2024

Ukraine latest: Bad news mounts for Ukraine across the frontlines. But Russia is under pressure too

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What next on the war in Ukraine?

•Nov 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

25%

900+ Forecasters on Whether Russia Will Invade Ukraine

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

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