Question

Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?

Resolved :Yes

39 comments39

Total Forecasters387

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

36.4

Community Peer Score

31.9

median 99.0%mean 97.3%

Authors:

ClayGraubard

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Will 1 million Russian personnel losses be reported before 2026?

63%

Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?

0.9%

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