Question

What percent of US population will live in Texas in the next census?

Total Forecasters11

Community Prediction9.18 (8.98 - 9.65)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

weight:

	<6.9	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>10.9
community	0.2%	8.984	9.182	9.649	1.5%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<6.9	0.2%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	8.984	—
median	9.182	—
upper 75%	9.649	—
Upper bound
>10.9	1.5%	—

Authors:

laika

Opened:

Feb 26, 2022

Closes:

Feb 2, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 5, 2031

The New York Stock Exchange is coming to Texas

Business Insider•Feb 13, 2025

15% of global population lives within a few miles of a coast − and the number is growing rapidly

The Conversation•Feb 16, 2025

Texas to Become Biggest State by 2045 As Center of Gravity Shifts South

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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45%

Will the population of the United States be higher than the People's Republic of China at any point before 2200?

12%

What will the US population be in these years?

341

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