Question

Official announcement of a 6th black hole merger spotted by a gravitational wave detector by end of summer?

Resolved :No14%

10 comments10

Total Forecasters66

Community Prediction14% (10% - 20%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 14%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

60.6

Community Peer Score

22.1

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Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Interferometric gravitational-wave detector

Astrophysics

LIGO

Astronomers Just Found Double Trouble Close To Our Galaxy’s Black Hole

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

There could be planets around the black hole at the heart of our galaxy, scientists say

Independent•Dec 18, 2024

Two stars may be orbiting each other near a supermassive black hole in our Milky Way galaxy

Associated Press•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected by November 30, 2027?

68.5%

Will a third LIGO detector be built in India before 2028?

30.1%

Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?

53%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Interferometric gravitational-wave detector

Astrophysics

LIGO

Astronomers Just Found Double Trouble Close To Our Galaxy’s Black Hole

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

There could be planets around the black hole at the heart of our galaxy, scientists say

Independent•Dec 18, 2024

Two stars may be orbiting each other near a supermassive black hole in our Milky Way galaxy

Associated Press•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected by November 30, 2027?

68.5%

Will a third LIGO detector be built in India before 2028?

30.1%

Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?

53%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Official announcement of a 6th black hole merger spotted by a gravitational wave detector by end of summer?

Make a Prediction

Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected by November 30, 2027?

Will a third LIGO detector be built in India before 2028?

Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?

Comments

Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected by November 30, 2027?

Will a third LIGO detector be built in India before 2028?

Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?

Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected by November 30, 2027?

Will a third LIGO detector be built in India before 2028?

Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?

Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected by November 30, 2027?

Will a third LIGO detector be built in India before 2028?

Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?