Question

Will someone in the U.S. be killed by a drone before 2018 is up?

Resolved :No

20 comments20

Total Forecasters194

Community Prediction15%

Make a Prediction

community: 15%

Did this actually happen?No

median 15.0%mean 15.0%

Authors:

AdamKosloff

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Unmanned aerial vehicle

United States

Aerospace engineering

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

20%

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

68%

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

15%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AdamKosloff

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Unmanned aerial vehicle

United States

Aerospace engineering

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New Scientist•Oct 3, 2024

Ukraine gives the US a sweet deal with one dead Russian soldier for every $20,000 spent on drones, unit commander says

Business Insider•Oct 3, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

20%

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

68%

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

15%

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Will someone in the U.S. be killed by a drone before 2018 is up?

Make a Prediction

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

Comments

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?