Question

Will someone in the U.S. be killed by a drone before 2018 is up?

Resolved :No

20 comments20

Total Forecasters194

Community Prediction15%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 15%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

64.2

Community Peer Score

13.9

median 15.0%mean 15.0%

Authors:

AdamKosloff

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Unmanned aerial vehicle

United States

Aerospace engineering

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

20%

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

68%

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

15%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AdamKosloff

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Unmanned aerial vehicle

United States

Aerospace engineering

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Wired•Nov 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

20%

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

68%

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

15%