Question

When will some country do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?

25 comments25

Total Forecasters38

Community Prediction2051-02-08

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2099-12-24

...

2040-03-01 11:41

2051-02-08 22:34

2069-10-10 17:51

12.5%

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Reproductive medicine

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%

Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

55%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Reproductive medicine

They Were Made Without Eggs or Sperm. Are They Human?

Atlantic•Oct 8, 2024

Why Fertility Treatment Funding Should Matter to Everyone

Psychology Today•Oct 9, 2024

Politicians say health plans should cover IVF. Currently only 1 in 4 employers do

NPR Online News•Oct 10, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%

Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

55%