Question

When will some country do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?

25 comments25

Total Forecasters37

Community Prediction2049-12-10 (2038-12-08 - 2068-01-07)

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weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2099-12-24

...

2038-12-08 14:47

2049-12-10 17:20

2068-01-07 19:36

11.3%

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Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Reproductive medicine

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Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%

Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

55.2%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Reproductive medicine

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

5 Of The Most Important Medical Breakthroughs Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 20, 2024

Silicon Valley Is Reviving the Discredited and Discriminatory Idea of ‘Race Science’

Scientific American•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%

Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

55.2%

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When will some country do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?

Make a Prediction

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Comments

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?