Question

When will some country do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?

25 comments25

Total Forecasters39

Community Prediction

Sep 2047

(Sep 2037 - Aug 2062)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2099
community	Sep 2037	Sep 2047	Aug 2062	8.9%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	Sep 2037	—
median	Sep 2047	—
upper 75%	Aug 2062	—
Upper bound
>2099	8.9%	—

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Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Feb 11, 2022

Closes:

Dec 25, 2099

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 25, 2099

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 13, 2022

Reproductive medicine

Bioethics

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%

Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

56%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Feb 11, 2022

Closes:

Dec 25, 2099

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 25, 2099

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 13, 2022

Reproductive medicine

Bioethics

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%

Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

56%

When will some country do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?

Make a Prediction

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Comments

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

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