Question

When will some country do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?

25 comments25

Total Forecasters37

Community Prediction2049-12-10 (2038-12-08 - 2068-01-07)

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weight:

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community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2099-12-24

...

2038-12-08 14:47

2049-12-10 17:20

2068-01-07 19:36

11.3%

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Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Reproductive medicine

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Newsweek•Dec 11, 2024

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Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

S. Africa’s new research guidelines not a green light for heritable human genome editing

Raw Story•Dec 13, 2024

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Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%

Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

55.2%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Reproductive medicine

How To Turn Around US Birth Rates, According to Project 2025 Group

Newsweek•Dec 11, 2024

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

S. Africa’s new research guidelines not a green light for heritable human genome editing

Raw Story•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%

Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

55.2%

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When will some country do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?

Make a Prediction

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Comments

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?