M

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

You're now enjoying a rewritten, open-source Metaculus, with a range of improvements and new opportunities for collaboration. Go here to learn more!

Question

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

10
0
Total Forecasters8
Community Prediction587

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
<1
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>100k
...
...
...
...
...
1.4%
86.1
587
3.17k
3.2%
Authors:
Matthew_Barnett
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Natural Sciences
Eureka, California
Salinas Valley
Golden Gate Bridge
1906 San Francisco earthquake
San Francisco Bay Area
US Geological Survey
San Francisco

Comments

? comments