Question

Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?

Resolved :No1%

42 comments42

Total Forecasters653

Community Prediction1% (1% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

96.4

Community Peer Score

5.9

Authors:

TomL

Opened:

Feb 25, 2022

Closes:

Mar 23, 2022

Resolves:

Mar 31, 2022

North Atlantic Treaty

Ukraine–NATO relations

Elon Musk Goes After NATO

Newsweek•Feb 13, 2025

NATO is in disarray after the US announces that its security priorities lie elsewhere

Associated Press•Feb 13, 2025

NATO nations are reportedly in talks to boost defense spending amid Trump's return to power

Business Insider•Feb 16, 2025

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