Question

Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?

Resolved :Yes

149 comments149

Total Forecasters966

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

48.8

Community Peer Score

11.8

median 99.0%mean 97.5%

Authors:

ClayGraubard casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Will 1 million Russian personnel losses be reported before 2026?

64%

Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?

Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

ClayGraubard casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Russia Lost 24,000 Troops in Just Three Weeks, Kyiv Estimates

Newsweek•Oct 20, 2024

Russian invasion sends Ukraine population plummeting by 10 million: UN

Al Jazeera•Oct 22, 2024

Ukraine's population has shrunk by 10 million since Russia first invaded, according to U.N. estimate

CBS•Oct 23, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will 1 million Russian personnel losses be reported before 2026?

64%