Question

Will more than 100,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?

Resolved :Ambiguous

94 comments94

Total Forecasters783

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Ambiguous

median 99.0%mean 95.2%

Authors:

ClayGraubard casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Will 1 million Russian personnel losses be reported before 2026?

63%

Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?

0.9%

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

44.5%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

ClayGraubard casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Russia Suffers Worst Day of War Yet Claims Ukrainian Military Intelligence

Breitbart•Nov 13, 2024

Analysis: Ukraine is facing 50,000 Russian troops in Kursk – can they hold out?

Independent•Nov 15, 2024

Analysis: Ukraine is facing 50,000 Russian troops in Kursk – can they hold out?

Independent•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will 1 million Russian personnel losses be reported before 2026?

63%

Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?

0.9%

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

44.5%