Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?

Resolved :No14%
4
13
Total Forecasters60
Community Prediction14% (1% - 30%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 14%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
70.4
Community Peer Score
34.6
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
stanulamstan
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Geopolitics
Computing and Math
2022 Leaderboard
Russo-Ukrainian War
Fields Medal
International Congress of Mathematicians
United States
Maryna Viazovska
Russia

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