Question

Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?

Resolved :No

12 comments12

Total Forecasters166

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

84.6

Community Peer Score

9.4

median 1.0%mean 1.5%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

China and Global Cooperation

Geopolitics

United Nations Security Council

Trump's first term avoided a fight in the South China Sea. It's only getting harder.

Business Insider•Nov 13, 2024

China Sends Military to Disputed Territory to Warn US Ally

Newsweek•Nov 14, 2024

US Ally in Pacific Says China Trespassing in Waters

Newsweek•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

20%

Will there be a US-China war before 2035?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

China and Global Cooperation

Geopolitics

United Nations Security Council

Trump's first term avoided a fight in the South China Sea. It's only getting harder.

Business Insider•Nov 13, 2024

China Sends Military to Disputed Territory to Warn US Ally

Newsweek•Nov 14, 2024

US Ally in Pacific Says China Trespassing in Waters

Newsweek•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

20%