Question

Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?

Resolved :No

12 comments12

Total Forecasters166

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

84.6

Community Peer Score

9.4

median 1.0%mean 1.5%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

China and Global Cooperation

Geopolitics

United Nations Security Council

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

20%

Will there be a US-China war before 2035?

Comments

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