Question

Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?

Resolved :No

47 comments47

Total Forecasters440

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

median 1.0%mean 5.3%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Verity

Geopolitics

United States Intelligence Community

United States

Jake Williams

Russia

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

10%

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

48%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Verity

Geopolitics

United States Intelligence Community

United States

Jake Williams

Russia

Notorious Evil Corp Hackers Targeted NATO Allies for Russian Intelligence

Wired•Oct 2, 2024

Justice Department and Microsoft disrupt Russian hacking operations aimed at US officials and civil society

CNN•Oct 3, 2024

The US and Microsoft disrupt a Russian hacking group targeting American officials and nonprofits

Associated Press•Oct 3, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

10%

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

48%

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Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?

Make a Prediction

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

Comments

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?