Question

Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?

Resolved :No1%

38 comments38

Total Forecasters440

Community Prediction1% (1% - 3%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

59.6

Community Peer Score

34.9

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Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

United States Intelligence Community

United States

Jake Williams

Russia

Russia launches massive attack on Ukraine’s energy sector, minister says

CNN•Dec 13, 2024

Russia targets Ukrainian infrastructure with a massive attack of cruise missiles and drones

Associated Press•Dec 13, 2024

Lawmakers wonder: why don't we hack back against China?

Defense One•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

2.6%

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

55%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

United States Intelligence Community

United States

Jake Williams

Russia

Russia launches massive attack on Ukraine’s energy sector, minister says

CNN•Dec 13, 2024

Russia targets Ukrainian infrastructure with a massive attack of cruise missiles and drones

Associated Press•Dec 13, 2024

Lawmakers wonder: why don't we hack back against China?

Defense One•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

2.6%

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

55%

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Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?

Make a Prediction

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

Comments

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?