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Conference Summary: Threshold 2030 - Modeling AI Economic Futures

4

Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?

135 forecasters

14

🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆

What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

End of 2024:3.5k

6

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

777 forecasters

59

108 comments108

Effective Institutions Project

If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?

10

Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI following his leave of absence?

8

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

1523 forecasters

201

482 comments482

AI Progress Essay Contest

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

306 forecasters

33

AI Demonstrations

Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025?

8

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

6

Chinese AI Chips