Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?
77%
150 forecasters
20
24 comments
24
AGI Outcomes
What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?
Jan-2026:
6.07M
74 forecasters
6
31 comments
31
Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round