Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?
Resolved :
No
222 forecasters
7
39 comments
39
Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?
Resolved :
No
92 forecasters
22
72 comments
72
Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?
45%
48 forecasters
3
19 comments
19
Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?
1.9%
42 forecasters
6
no comments
0
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?
1%
119 forecasters
11
34 comments
34
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?
2052-09-01
14 forecasters
5
2 comments
2