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Will a Chinese-made ArFi lithography machine be used in volume production anywhere before 2028?

68%
19 forecasters
7
0

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

85%
29 forecasters
11
0

When will China manufacture extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment domestically?

02 Oct 2028
25 forecasters
12
10

Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?

80%
32 forecasters
11
0
condition

Chinese volume production using EUV by 2033?

9 forecasters
if yes
if no

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

75%
75%

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

50%
50%
1
2

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

Naura
29%
SMEE
27%
AMEC
23.5%
1 other
7
1

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