Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
🇺🇸
2024 US Election Hub
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?
3%
19
33 comments
33
Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?
Resolved :
No
26
63 comments
63
Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?
Resolved :
No
12
8 comments
8
Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
Resolved :
Yes
10
7 comments
7
Effective Institutions Project
When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)?
Resolved :
May 28, 2024
2
7 comments
7
AI in China
condition
Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
Resolved :
Yes
if yes
if no
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
2026-04-19
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
2025-11-23
Resolved :
Annulled
4
no comments
0
Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?
Resolved :
Yes
21
24 comments
24
condition
US TikTok ban or forced sale?
Resolved :
Yes
if yes
if no
US-China AI Treaty? (2025)
1%
1%
US-China AI Treaty? (2025)
5%
5%
Resolved :
Annulled
1
no comments
0
Conditional Cup
Will TikTok still be available in the United States on December 31, 2025?
Yes, still owned by foreign adversary
65.62%
No
21.65%
Yes, non-adversary owner
12.73%
8
9 comments
9