Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump (R)
Yes
Kamala Harris (D)
No
Joe Biden (D)
Annulled
17 others
20
82 comments
82
If inaugurated as President in 2025, will these 2024 presidential candidates complete a full four-year term?
Kamala Harris
96%
Ron DeSantis
93%
Nikki Haley
92.5%
5 others
6
11 comments
11
Will the next elected U.S. President be (as usual) a white, Christian, non-Hispanic man?
Resolved :
Yes
462 forecasters
33
36 comments
36
Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump
Yes
Nikki Haley
No
Ron DeSantis
No
14 others
51
418 comments
418
Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day?
J.D. Vance
Yes
Glenn Youngkin
No
Vivek Ramaswamy
No
26 others
23
239 comments
239
Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?
Resolved :
Yes
38 forecasters
6
5 comments
5
🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆
When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns?
Donald Trump
Jul 15, 2024
Nikki Haley
Mar 6, 2024
Ron DeSantis
Jan 21, 2024
3 others
5
42 comments
42
Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday?
Donald Trump
Yes
Nikki Haley
No
Ron DeSantis
No
3 others
11
5 comments
5