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Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025?

10

Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025?

Civil Liability Laws

Mandatory Disclosure Requirements

10

Regulation of AI

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

3

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

4

Regulation of AI

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

125 forecasters

15

Will over 70% of internet traffic be encrypted by 2017?

11

Will security patches against "Specter-NG" vulnerabilities be available for end-users by September 2018?

Resolved :Ambiguous

3

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

145 forecasters

19

Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?

107 forecasters

23

When will a biocomputer be able to perform an SHA-256 hash?

15