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Will the cost of sequencing a human genome in 2031 be less than the value of one hour of US labor productivity?

75%
15 forecasters
40%50%60%70%80%90%Feb 01Feb 05Feb 09Feb 13Feb 17Feb 21Feb 25Mar 01Mar 05Mar 09Mar 13Mar 17Mar 21Mar 25Mar 29
1
8
Closes Dec 31, 2031

Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022?

Resolved:No31%
25 forecasters
20%25%30%35%40%45%Jul 31Aug 04Aug 08Aug 12Aug 16Aug 20Aug 24Aug 28Sep 01Sep 05Sep 09Sep 13Sep 17Sep 21Sep 25Sep 29
6
5
Resolved Sep 30, 2021

Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 2030?

73%
69 forecasters
65%70%75%80%Feb 01Feb 05Feb 09Feb 13Feb 17Feb 21Feb 25Mar 01Mar 05Mar 09Mar 13Mar 17Mar 21Mar 25Mar 29
9
15
Closes Jan 1, 2030

In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?

Resolved:Ambiguous11
20 forecasters
0
3
9
Resolved Mar 15, 2021

When will a biocomputer be able to perform an SHA-256 hash?

Dec 2045
18 forecasters
14 Apr 2022
15
10
Closes Jan 1, 2035

What will be the cost of sequencing a whole human genome in 2026 (in 2021 USD)?

118 $
47 forecasters
1 $
22
7
Closes Dec 30, 2027

When will there be a handheld and portable genomic sequencing device that costs <$250 (2021 USD)?

Closed14 Feb 2029
102 forecasters
10 Jun 2022
9
6
Closed

What will be the cost (in 2021 USD) of sequencing a whole human genome in 2031?

Closed63.1
118 forecasters
1
14
10
Closed

What will be the cost (in 2021 USD) of sequencing a full human genome in the following years?

2023
Annulled
2025
Annulled
2032
Annulled
2 others
0.0010.0316131.61k21222052203220252023
19
7
Resolved Mar 18, 2025

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