Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🔭
Bridgewater 2025
🤖
AI Benchmarking
🌍
USAID Outlook
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
When will SpaceX launch humans around the Moon?
19 Nov 2028
97 forecasters
28 Apr 2021
25
21 comments
21
Closes
Jan 1, 2051
Will SpaceX launch for Mars in the 2018 window?
Resolved:
No
15%
442 forecasters
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Apr 17
Apr 21
Apr 25
Apr 29
May 03
May 07
May 11
May 15
May 19
May 23
May 27
May 31
Jun 04
Jun 08
Jun 12
Jun 16
97
56 comments
56
Resolved
Jun 16, 2017
First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?
Resolved:
No
20%
116 forecasters
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Dec 02
Dec 06
Dec 10
Dec 14
Dec 18
Dec 22
Dec 26
Dec 30
Jan 03
Jan 07
Jan 11
Jan 15
Jan 19
Jan 23
Jan 27
Jan 31
15
13 comments
13
Resolved
Feb 1, 2018
Attempted crewed SpaceX flight in 2018?
Resolved:
No
4%
227 forecasters
0%
10%
20%
30%
May 22
May 26
May 30
Jun 03
Jun 07
Jun 11
Jun 15
Jun 19
Jun 23
Jun 27
Jul 01
Jul 05
Jul 09
Jul 13
Jul 17
32
18 comments
18
Resolved
Jul 21, 2018
Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?
Resolved:
No
4%
295 forecasters
0%
5%
10%
15%
May 22
May 26
May 30
Jun 03
Jun 07
Jun 11
Jun 15
Jun 19
Jun 23
Jun 27
Jul 01
Jul 05
Jul 09
Jul 13
Jul 17
50
23 comments
23
Resolved
Jul 21, 2019
Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020?
Resolved:
No
70%
89 forecasters
50%
65%
80%
95%
Jan 03
Jan 07
Jan 11
Jan 15
Jan 19
Jan 23
Jan 27
Jan 31
Feb 04
Feb 08
Feb 12
Feb 16
Feb 20
Feb 24
Feb 28
9
9 comments
9
Resolved
Mar 2, 2019
Attempted crewed Boeing CST-100 Starliner flight prior to 2020?
Resolved:
No
53%
42 forecasters
Jan 09
Jan 12
Jan 15
Jan 18
Jan 21
Jan 24
Jan 27
Jan 30
Feb 02
Feb 05
Feb 08
Feb 11
Feb 14
Feb 17
Feb 20
Feb 23
Feb 26
Mar 01
8
6 comments
6
Resolved
Mar 1, 2019
Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?
Resolved:
No
15%
116 forecasters
0%
10%
20%
30%
Sep 01
Sep 05
Sep 09
Sep 13
Sep 17
Sep 21
Sep 25
Sep 29
Oct 03
Oct 07
Oct 11
Oct 15
Oct 19
Oct 23
Oct 27
Oct 31
19
33 comments
33
Resolved
Oct 31, 2019
Will SpaceX launch humans around the Moon between 2024-12-31 and 2032-12-31?
no comments
0
Closed
AI benchmarking warmup
We use cookies 🍪 to understand how you use Metaculus and to improve your experience.
Learn more about how we use cookies in our
Privacy Policy
Necessary only
Customize
Accept and close