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Will Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena have an ontologically-shocking explanation?
1%
90 forecasters
9
13 comments
13
Has new a planetary-mass object been discovered in the outer solar system?
Resolved :
No
19 forecasters
9
2 comments
2
Another NYT News Story about U.F.O.s this Year?
Resolved :
No
44 forecasters
5
12 comments
12
Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?
Resolved :
No
67 forecasters
3
42 comments
42
Will a major cryptid discovery be made by 2040?
3%
92 forecasters
16
23 comments
23
How many months after a Western actor trains a 1e26 FLOP model (~5x GPT-4) will a Chinese actor do so?
11.5
12 forecasters
7
4 comments
4
AI in China