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Will Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena have an ontologically-shocking explanation?
1%
91 forecasters
0%
5%
10%
Feb 13
Feb 17
Feb 21
Feb 25
Mar 01
Mar 05
Mar 09
Mar 13
Mar 17
Mar 21
Mar 25
Mar 29
Apr 02
Apr 06
Apr 10
9
13 comments
13
Closes
Jul 21, 2028
Has new a planetary-mass object been discovered in the outer solar system?
Resolved:
No
5%
19 forecasters
0%
5%
10%
Dec 11
Dec 12
Dec 13
Dec 14
Dec 15
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Dec 21
Dec 22
Dec 23
Dec 24
Dec 25
Dec 26
Dec 27
Dec 28
Dec 29
Dec 30
Dec 31
9
2 comments
2
Resolved
Dec 31, 2015
Another NYT News Story about U.F.O.s this Year?
Resolved:
No
47%
44 forecasters
25%
50%
75%
Jan 28
Jan 30
Feb 01
Feb 03
Feb 05
Feb 07
Feb 09
Feb 11
Feb 13
Feb 15
Feb 17
Feb 19
Feb 21
Feb 23
Feb 25
Feb 27
Mar 01
5
12 comments
12
Resolved
Mar 1, 2018
Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?
Resolved:
No
52%
67 forecasters
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jul 01
Jul 05
Jul 09
Jul 13
Jul 17
Jul 21
Jul 25
Jul 29
Aug 02
Aug 06
Aug 10
Aug 14
Aug 18
Aug 22
Aug 26
Aug 30
3
42 comments
42
Resolved
Aug 31, 2021
Will a major cryptid discovery be made by 2040?
2.5%
95 forecasters
0%
2.5%
5%
7.5%
10%
Feb 13
Feb 17
Feb 21
Feb 25
Mar 01
Mar 05
Mar 09
Mar 13
Mar 17
Mar 21
Mar 25
Mar 29
Apr 02
Apr 06
Apr 10
16
23 comments
23
Closes
Dec 30, 2035
How many months after a Western actor trains a 1e26 FLOP model (~5x GPT-4) will a Chinese actor do so?
Closed
11.6
14 forecasters
-12
6
24
42
60
7
4 comments
4
Closed
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