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Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

7

Effective Institutions Project

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra

Anthropic / Claude 4 Opus

20

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

8

If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?

137 forecasters

29

If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?

164 forecasters

19

In 2016, will an AI player beat a professionally ranked human in the ancient game of Go?

131 forecasters

40

AI Demonstrations

Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?

8

AI Demonstrations

Will a human beat AlphaGo in 2017?

181 forecasters

10

[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?

5

Will the Unique Games Conjecture be proved by 2030?

2