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AI Benchmarking
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Will TikTok still be available in the United States on December 31, 2025?

Yes, still owned by foreign adversary
84.22%
No
10.52%
Yes, non-adversary owner
5.26%
8
9

Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?

Resolved :No
79 forecasters
9
18

When will a currently unknown social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?

2025-08-13
92 forecasters
10
18

Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?

Resolved :No
321 forecasters
23
71

Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?

Resolved :Yes
107 forecasters
21
24
condition

US TikTok ban or forced sale?

Resolved :Yes
11 forecasters
if yes
if no

US-China AI Treaty? (2025)

1%
1%

US-China AI Treaty? (2025)

5%
5%
Resolved :Annulled
1
0