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Forecasting OWID Commenting Prize Winners

8

Forecasting Our World in Data

Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?

Anthropic AI Claude, not optional

OpenAI GPT-4, not optional

OpenAI GPT-4, optional

6

When will >50% of users access Google over IPv6?

6

When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic?

12

Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

11

Will over 70% of internet traffic be encrypted by 2017?

11

Seeing single photons: more research to come?

7

When will the first 49+ qubit universal quantum computer be constructed?

Resolved :Ambiguous

25

Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?

23

What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?

124 forecasters

41