Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
condition
Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024?
26 forecasters
if yes
if no
US Iran War Before 2025?
2%
2%
US Iran War Before 2025?
1%
1%
3
no comments
0
Conditional Cup
Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3,000 in any calendar year before 2032?
27%
58 forecasters
8
18 comments
18
condition
Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before 2024?
Resolved :
No
140 forecasters
if yes
if no
US Iran War Before 2025?
15%
15%
Resolved :
Annulled
US Iran War Before 2025?
2%
2%
13
3 comments
3
Conditional Cup
condition
US Iran War Before 2025?
48 forecasters
if yes
if no
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
50%
50%
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
21%
21%
5
1 comment
1
Israel-Gaza Conflict
condition
Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024?
Resolved :
No
30 forecasters
if yes
if no
US Iran War Before 2025?
8%
8%
Resolved :
Annulled
US Iran War Before 2025?
1%
1%
7
2 comments
2
Conditional Cup