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Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?

12%
138 forecasters
10%20%30%40%50%Jan 31Feb 04Feb 08Feb 12Feb 16Feb 20Feb 24Feb 28Mar 04Mar 08Mar 12Mar 16Mar 20Mar 24Mar 28
11
16

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

7%
154 forecasters
0%5%10%15%20%Jan 31Feb 04Feb 08Feb 12Feb 16Feb 20Feb 24Feb 28Mar 04Mar 08Mar 12Mar 16Mar 20Mar 24Mar 28
13
2

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

30%
158 forecasters
20%25%30%35%40%45%Jan 31Feb 04Feb 08Feb 12Feb 16Feb 20Feb 24Feb 28Mar 04Mar 08Mar 12Mar 16Mar 20Mar 24Mar 28
31
19

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to naturally occuring pandemics?

9%
73 forecasters
0%5%10%15%20%25%Jan 31Feb 04Feb 08Feb 12Feb 16Feb 20Feb 24Feb 28Mar 04Mar 08Mar 12Mar 16Mar 20Mar 24Mar 28
9
9

Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?

80%
23 forecasters
Jan 31Feb 04Feb 08Feb 12Feb 16Feb 20Feb 24Feb 28Mar 04Mar 08Mar 12Mar 16Mar 20Mar 24Mar 28
4
2

Ragnarök Question Series: if a natural pandemic catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

1%
18 forecasters
0%2.5%5%Jan 31Feb 04Feb 08Feb 12Feb 16Feb 20Feb 24Feb 28Mar 04Mar 08Mar 12Mar 16Mar 20Mar 24Mar 28
5
18

By the end of 2017 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated?

Resolved:No54%
86 forecasters
30%40%50%60%70%Mar 16Mar 20Mar 24Mar 28Apr 01Apr 05Apr 09Apr 13Apr 17Apr 21Apr 25Apr 29May 03May 07May 11May 15
27
8

Will a fatality of one or more per year due to accidental infections in "select agent" pathogen research labs be reported in the next year?

Resolved:No29%
67 forecasters
0%10%20%30%40%50%Sep 15Sep 19Sep 23Sep 27Oct 01Oct 05Oct 09Oct 13Oct 17Oct 21Oct 25Oct 29Nov 02Nov 06Nov 10Nov 14
2
8

Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?

Resolved:No10%
122 forecasters
0%10%20%30%40%Apr 15Apr 19Apr 23Apr 27May 01May 05May 09May 13May 17May 21May 25May 29Jun 02Jun 06Jun 10Jun 14
13
16

Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?

Resolved:No30%
76 forecasters
30%50%70%Apr 15Apr 19Apr 23Apr 27May 01May 05May 09May 13May 17May 21May 25May 29Jun 02Jun 06Jun 10Jun 14
9
1

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