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When will the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse?
2051-10-05
20 forecasters
8
no comments
0
Will a record-setting brown dwarf be discovered by the end of 2017?
Resolved :
No
87 forecasters
1
4 comments
4
To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?
Resolved :
No
301 forecasters
83
24 comments
24
Are we in a simulated reality? Part I
Resolved :
No
146 forecasters
24
19 comments
19
Will a recent paper claiming a breakthrough in high-T superconductivity be published in Nature?
Resolved :
No
66 forecasters
4
1 comment
1
Will the study “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate?
Resolved :
No
53 forecasters
10
6 comments
6
Transparent Replications
Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?
40%
30 forecasters
7
7 comments
7
How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate?
2
Yes
1
No
1.5
No
2 others
5
7 comments
7
Transparent Replications
How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate?
2
No
3
Yes
1
No
1 other
2
1 comment
1
Transparent Replications
Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate?
Resolved :
Yes
21 forecasters
4
2 comments
2
Transparent Replications
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