Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Nuclear proliferation, force sizes, & yields
6
6 comments
6
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?
Resolved :
No
81 forecasters
4
12 comments
12
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?
1.9%
42 forecasters
6
no comments
0
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?
1%
119 forecasters
11
34 comments
34
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
When will total worldwide nuclear disarmament occur?
2201-01-14
12 forecasters
7
1 comment
1
Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?
50%
57 forecasters
6
12 comments
12
