Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?
99%
89 forecasters
8
14 comments
14
Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?
Resolved :
No
444 forecasters
16
16 comments
16
Ukraine Conflict
Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?
Resolved :
No
658 forecasters
21
101 comments
101
Ukraine Conflict
If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?
Sevastopol
Annulled
Luhansk city
Annulled
Dzhankoi
Annulled
8 others
15
20 comments
20
Red Lines in Ukraine
Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?
Resolved :
Above upper bound
146 forecasters
10
10 comments
10
Red Lines in Ukraine
Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?
> 50 km^2
Ambiguous
< 50 km^2
No
8
13 comments
13
Red Lines in Ukraine
On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?
Resolved :
No
183 forecasters
11
8 comments
8
ACX 2023 Prediction Contest
condition
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)
Closed
40 forecasters
if yes
if no
Ukrainian territory lost in 2029?
90%
90%
Ukrainian territory lost in 2029?
73%
73%
5
no comments
0