Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🔭
Bridgewater 2025
🤖
AI Benchmarking
📖
ACX 2025
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
Syria
80%
Haiti
67.6%
Mali
60%
70 others
28
82 comments
82
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?
65%
792 forecasters
20
26 comments
26
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
67%
Saudi Arabia
15%
South Korea
7.5%
7 others
8
6 comments
6
Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?
18%
32 forecasters
4
7 comments
7
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will TikTok still be available in the United States on December 31, 2025?
Yes, non-adversary owner
45.92%
Yes, still owned by foreign adversary
30.61%
No
23.47%
8
12 comments
12
Will there be a US-China war before 2035?
10%
449 forecasters
42
34 comments
34
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?
40%
973 forecasters
106
200 comments
200
The Taiwan Tinderbox
If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?
Resolved :
No
15%
26 forecasters
3
2 comments
2
Chinese AI Chips
Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?
2035
2%
2030
1%
3
no comments
0
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
2035
35%
2030
25%
2025
No
73
354 comments
354
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Load More