Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?
21 to 100
89.89%
More than 100
9.81%
0
0.1%
2 others
7
95 comments
95
Respiratory Outlook 2023/24
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?
5%
109 forecasters
15
66 comments
66
Respiratory Outlook 2023/24
On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?
4.24
29 forecasters
10
10 comments
10
Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee
condition
Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025?
19 forecasters
if yes
if no
500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025?
2%
2%
500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025?
0%
0%
1
no comments
0
Conditional Cup
When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?
2040-01-01
9 forecasters
3
2 comments
2
In which year will Tesla officially unveil a new passenger vehicle, possibly called the Model 2, priced under $25,000?
Not before 2027
49.8%
2026
25.46%
2025
19.65%
1 other
8
22 comments
22
Will there be any faithless electors in the 2016 U.S. Electoral College?
Resolved :
Yes
38 forecasters
2
10 comments
10
Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?
Resolved :
No
150 forecasters
13
39 comments
39
Will Texas elect a Democratic senator in 2018?
Resolved :
No
120 forecasters
16
11 comments
11
Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?
1%
308 forecasters
-17
44 comments
44
Load More