Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🔭
Bridgewater 2025
🤖
AI Benchmarking
📖
ACX 2025
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
How many of the following space exploration activities will China conduct before 2030?
Crewed spaceflight
26.4
Space station visits
19.3
Lunar exploration
6.58
7
9 comments
9
🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
What will the space traveler fatality rate due to spacecraft anomalies be in the 2020's?
0.001
26 forecasters
6
10 comments
10
How many people will fly to space for the first time in the 2020's?
604
22 forecasters
8
7 comments
7
When will a free flying commercial space station become operational?
2030-05-02
38 forecasters
13
14 comments
14
Verity
The Future of Human Spaceflight
10
no comments
0
Metaculus Journal Archives
When will the following space agencies launch a crewed mission?
KARI
Sep 4, 2034
JAXA
Jul 25, 2033
ESA
Aug 26, 2032
1 other
7
17 comments
17
🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
What will be the maximum number of people in space simultaneously for each of the following years?
2035
94.5
2030
37.5
2025
18.7
7
4 comments
4
🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰